Russia the Asymmetric Threat: A Potent Mixture of Energy and Missiles

I'm posting this on behalf of John Wood, regarding his new book, Russia the Asymmetric Threat: A Potent Mixture of Energy and Missiles

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By John Wood

 

Introduction

The current economic crisis offers the Obama administration a window of opportunity to embark upon a course of constructive engagement - reset. Mutual self interest in the arms control arena and the energy sphere should motivate both sides to cooperate.

 

Purpose of the Book

In February 2007, at the 43rd Munich Security Conference, then President Putin made the statement that Russia would respond to the United States asymmetrically. The purpose of the book is to explain what Putin meant by that statement. At the heart of Putin’s asymmetric strategy is the use of Russian energy and missiles.

 

Concept

Under Putin, Russia has emerged as the global energy superpower. The means by which it wishes to transform itself into a knowledge economy. Its military modernization program is designed to support its new national security doctrine. This is a doctrine that emphasizes the need to protect Russia’s energy interests. For Putin, the unipolar approach of the United States represents the greatest threat to the realization of this vision. Therefore, he has conceived an asymmetric response to the perceived U.S. threat: the creation of a new network of energy pipelines that will make Europe even more dependent on Russia than it already is, and will make Asia equally as dependent by 2020. In addition, in order to change the regional balance of power in his favor, Putin has employed a deft use of missile and aircraft arms sales to Russia’s energy partners, who are also not friends of the United States, such as Iran, Libya, Malaysia and Venezuela.

 

Overview

Due to low levels of debt, massive reserves and the pursuance of a course of fiscal responsibility, the World Bank in November 2008 predicted that Russia was in a good position to financially weather the current economic storm.

 

Russia holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves, the second largest coal and uranium reserves, and the eighth largest oil reserves. Europe is dependent on Russia for 25% of its oil and gas. Russia is also positioning itself to play a similar role with respect to China. 

 

Russia has embarked on a program of modernization of its military, the centerpiece of which is an overhaul of its aging strategic nuclear forces. The focus is on technologically advanced, but relatively inexpensive missile systems, which by comparison with their U.S. counterparts often exceed them in their capabilities.

 

From Putin’s perspective, America is in the process of imposing “absolute security” or as Joint Vision 2020 put it: “full spectrum dominance” over the world. As the sole remaining superpower, the United States enjoys a massive strategic imbalance in its favor, which it has used first to contain, but now with the intent to control the world. How? NATO expansion lays the groundwork for a U.S. global missile defense system to contain perceived adversaries, which in turn secures the dominance of America through its Prompt Global Strike capability (PGS) – the ability to strike anywhere on the planet with impunity within 90 minutes of the order being given by The President. Thus, PGS will be to the 21st Century, what British Gun Boat Diplomacy was to the 19th Century.

 

Potent? If either Israel and/or the United States attack Iran, they can expect to suffer losses of between 20%-40% of their non-stealth aircraft and missiles at the hands of Iran’s air defenses, including Russian S-300s, Tor-M1s and Pantsyr-S1s, as well as losses of civilian and naval ships in the Straits of Hormuz due to supersonic anti-ship missiles. Meanwhile, the world can expect a barrel of crude oil to cost $200.

 

Conclusion

Russia’s massive oil and gas reserves in the Arctic, Eastern Siberia and Far East, as well as its leading edge missile systems, make it a force to be reckoned with, rather than being ignored or dismissed by the West. Thus, the sooner the United States recognizes and comes to terms with this reality, the better it will be for her.

 

The book is available on Amazon.com: http://www.amazon.com/Russia-Asymmetric-Threat-United-States/dp/0313359415/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1246228394&sr=1-1

Comments

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If either Israel and/or the United States attack Iran, they can expect to suffer losses of between 20%-40% of their non-stealth aircraft and missiles at the hands of Iran’s air defenses, including Russian S-300s, Tor-M1s and Pantsyr-S1s, as well as losses of civilian and naval ships in the Straits of Hormuz due to supersonic anti-ship missiles. Meanwhile, the world can expect a barrel of crude oil to cost $200.